Digital Media and Perceptions of Source Credibility †Free Samples

Question: Discuss about the Digital Media and Perceptions of Source Credibility. Answer: Introduction: The whole matter in this following topic is going to cover the things which are oriented to identity strategies of My Licence portal. This particular website is very popular in Australia. This organisation is dealing with providing of service regarding the customer needs. It is very crucial thing for the organisation to implement some of the major strategies which can secure all the data of the customers. This particular organisation is aiming towards collecting all licences from every individual in Australia. (Murphy,et al., 2014). Due to this kind of approach towards their customers, it gets very crucial and vital for the organisation to keep the data of the customers safe and discreet. It is also important to ensure that there should not be any breach of information. In order to follow the working initiatives, the organisation also applies some major rules and formats to make this process work smoothly for the organisation. This organisation mainly tries to collect all the licence from almost every individual of Australia. For this great initiative, the organisation should implement PII strategy for making the process smooth and easy for the organisation to conduct. These particular strategies are very helpful for the organisation to maintain all area related to this particular topic. However, it is an e-commerce website, as a result of which, there are also many risks and threats available for this kind of movement (Howard Hussain, 2013). As a reason of those threats and risk as do exist in this scenario, it is very crucial for the organisation to implant effective strategies in order to counter the particular kind of serious threats and risks. As their chief aim is the collection of all the required data from various customers, the main concern in this aspect is keeping those valuable data safe and secure. As a result of this kind of prevailing scenario, the implantation of PII strategy is very helpful for the organisation for conducting the whole process . The processes related to secure the data of the consumers are included in this particular movement. In this following organisation, risk factors are very crucial thing to discuss. As a result of such kinds of risks available in this particular scenario, the organisation can secure their PII systems from those cyber threats (Mertens, Rosemann, 2015). Those organisations which do not include PII strategies are well behind compared to the other organisation in the global market. The Licence portal should implement PII strategies in their business for smoothening the process of this kind of works. On the other hand, it is very important for the organisation to secure those PII systems from various kinds of malicious attacks. For conducting the whole process, it is very important for the organisation to educate their employees properly. By giving them training in digital oriented education, it will become very helpful for the organisation regarding the conducting of the whole process. The management should maintain an ERP system, where the entire customers information should be stored securely and no one will be able to tamper with that information. The organisation should also abide by the rules and regulations as under the Australian law and in no situation this should be taken for granted. There should be a proper verification process and a separate team should be appointed for this job. The role of this team should be to verify and crosscheck the authenticity of the documents provided by the customers at the time of issuing their licence (Nacos, 2016). After discussing the whole lot thing about these particular organisations strategies, it can be easily incorporated to detect the crucial strategies taken up by the organisation for enhancing the whole process. Outlining the governance plan For conducting the whole process smoothly, it is very important to have that proper governance plan which would help with the related issues regarding securing of the data of the customer. Over the decade, this particular section is very important even for the government to ensure the effective implantation of the related aspects in their movement for running the whole process smoothly. There are many areas available for implementing the major plans. National vision and ownership over political matters are very crucial about the matter of implementation of those plans. However, this portal is dealing with the process of collection of all the various licences from the individuals. (Ye, 2014) Because of this kind of approach they need to implement a strong security system for securing the data of the consumers. It is very important and vital thing for the organisation to secure and protect their PII system from various kinds of malicious cyber attacks. Because of this kind approach ove r their policies, it is very important to look after and examine every important matter. For conducting the whole process related to this particular matter, it is necessary to form a proper team. Without a proper team it will be very difficult for the organisation to conduct those procedures as required for the efficient functioning of every sector. Dedication of every team member is much required in the process. (Flanagin Metzger, 2017). The areas, which portray the public and private partnership, are also required in the process of forming a fruitful governance plan. Though this organisation is dealing with holding and keeping the database, so defined architecture is very much required in the process of conducting the issues, especially for those related to privacy and security. ( Sandstrm,et al., 2015) In order to make the whole process very easy for the customer, it always requires a proper and good customer service. Proper customer service is always very important for conducti ng this kind of movement. For managing the technical issues, it is very important to implant a core group of professionals in making the process smooth. On the other hand, for enhancing this particular project it is important to implant small pilots before scaling up the entire process as a whole. Reference Murphy, D. G., Loeb, S., Basto, M. Y., Challacombe, B., Trinh, Q. D., Leveridge, M., ... Bultitude, M. (2014). Engaging responsibly with social media: the BJUI guidelines. BJU international, 114(1), 9-11. Mertens, W., Rosemann, M. (2015). Digital Identity 3.0: The Platform for People. Ye, L. (2014). State-led metropolitan governance in China: Making integrated city regions. Cities, 41, 200-208. Sandstrm, A., Bodin, ., Crona, B. (2015). Network Governance from the topThe case of ecosystem-based coastal and marine management. Marine Policy, 55, 57-63. Nacos, B. (2016). Mass-mediated terrorism: Mainstream and digital media in terrorism and counterterrorism. Rowman Littlefield. Howard, P. N., Hussain, M. M. (2013). Democracy's fourth wave?: digital media and the Arab Spring. Oxford University Press on Demand. Flanagin, A. J., Metzger, M. J. (2017). Digital Media and Perceptions of Source Credibility in Political Communication. The Oxford Handbook of Political Communication, 417.

Publishing and Crowdfunding with Publishizer

Publishing and Crowdfunding with Publishizer Crowdfunding is the perfect medium for today’s author raising funds for marketing and publishing expenses. But there is a hybrid alternative to straight crowdfunding. Instead of querying multiple publishers on their own, authors can raise funds on a platform like Publishizer that also matches authors with publishers based on pre-order milestones of their book. After doing much research, I chose  Publishizer  over  Kickstarter,  Indiegogo  and a number of hybrid crowdfunding/publishing sites such as  Inkshares  for one main reason: the idea of matching authors to publishers. I didn’t want to send multiple emails to publishers. I wanted them to come to me based on the merit of my proposal. All I needed to do was demonstrate proof of concept of the book Having gone through the experience growing my platform With Publishizer, you write a proposal outlining your book’s marketing plan for approval. You not only set a date to launch your campaign, but you also reach out to readers for pre-orders. The number of pre-orders lets Publishizer know that you are a serious writer and that there’s a following out there willing to buy the book. Then Publishizer queries publishers on your behalf based on number of pre-orders signed up Throughout the campaign, I worried whether I could even reach the 250 pre-order milestone needed to attract an indie/independent publisher, my ideal publishing goal. Acquiring 250 pre-orders takes endurance and stamina! To help me stay accountable, Guy Vincent, founder of Publishizer and his team set up weekly strategy calls (at no extra charge) via Skype and Zoom calls. They are big on helping you think outside the box in terms of getting supporters and talking about your book to sponsors to increase your marketability. Since I had an already established fan base, I reached out to those supporters first – most of whom supported this second crowdfunding campaign. I held contests, offered enticing rewards, did giveaways on social media, did several Facebook live videos, shared milestone updates – in short I built a lot of book buzz. At the end of the intense, three-month campaign, Sand and Steel: The Spiritual Journey Home was queried to 98 publishers thanks to 253 preorders that also included a very generous sponsor, growing my platform and fan base Out of the seventeen publishers who expressed interest, I ended up signing a contract with Mascot Books who, from the start, resonated very strongly with the themes and messages of my memoir about what it means to find a home in the United States as a returning American struggling with Reverse Culture Shock. It was a perfect match. Like publishing, the crowdfunding world is changing, and Publishizer is matching reputable publishers with authors like myself who otherwise, would not have known about these publishers.

Creative Ideas for Extracurricular Activities

Creative Ideas for Extracurricular Activities Rubiks Cube may not seem to have much to do with college admissions, but anything an applicant is passionate about can be transformed into a winning piece of a college application. This article explores how Rubiks Cube and other quirky interests can become meaningful extracurricular activities. Avoiding Burn-Out in High School A high school student wrote in the college admissions forum that he was worried about his burn-out and his lack of extracurricular activities. He also mentioned his passion for Rubiks Cube. This combination of passion and burn-out gets to the heart of a good college application strategy. Far too many students join clubs, compete in sports, and play instruments because they feel these activities are essential for getting into college, not because they actually have any passion for these extracurriculars. When you spend a lot of time doing something you dont love, you will burn out. What Can Count as an Extracurricular Activity? College applicants should think broadly about what can be defined as an extracurricular activity (see What Counts as an Extracurricular Activity?). Not everyone can be or wants to be class president, drum major, or the lead in the school play. And the truth is, unusual extracurricular activities are going to make your application stand out more than membership in Chess Club and Debate Team (mind you, Chess Club and Debate Team are both fine extracurriculars). So, getting back to the Rubiks Cube can ones love of the Cube be classified as an extracurricular? If handled correctly, yes. No college will be impressed by the applicant who spends four hours a day sitting alone in a room playing with a puzzle, but consider something like this example: if youre really into cubing and decided to make a cube club at your school, finding others who were interested and creating the club, it could look good on an application because it shows that youre taking charge and starting something that will be beneficial for others. Heres a Rubiks Cube lover who turned that passion into a school club. The applicant demonstrates leadership and organization skills by taking the initiative to transform his passion into something more than a solitary hobby. And note that leadership is key when it comes to the best extracurricular activities. An impressive extracurricular isnt defined by the activity itself, but by what the student accomplishes with the activity. The student could take this club one step further to accomplish the dual goals of getting into college and helping others how about using the club to fundraise for a charity? Create a Rubiks Cube competition; collect donations; get sponsors use the club to raise money and awareness for a worthy cause. The main point here isnt just about Rubiks Cube, but about extracurriculars. The best college applicants remain true to their interests and passions. Think broadly and creatively about extracurriculars to figure out how to transform your passions into something meaningful that will be a pleasure for you, a benefit to others, and an impressive part on your college application.

LIberals and Conservatives Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

LIberals and Conservatives - Essay Example They ask the government to treat all individuals on an equal basis, protecting civil liberties and human rights. For example, they ask the government for taxpayer-funded programs that support mothers who want abortions. They support long-term welfare that government provides to the needy. Conservatives, in contrast, do not accept change to traditional way of living. However, there is a contradiction in their beliefs. For example, they are against government programs that support abortions, because they want to save the unborn lives (Courtwright 5); yet, they are also against government programs that provide prenatal care to single mothers. They are against government funding for the needy, but they support government support for victims of flood and earthquakes. Such illogical beliefs held by conservatives are unacceptable for liberals. In short, liberals and conservatives hold opposite views and beliefs. Liberals are open-minded, and promote human rights, like abortion and government support for the needy; while, conservatives are narrow-minded, and hold contradictory views which liberals consider as corrupt and

Public Relations Society of America's ethical standards Research Paper

Public Relations Society of America's ethical standards - Research Paper Example Therefore, members of PRSA focus on serving the public, thereby taking obligations that involve operating ethically. In this case, this paper focuses on presenting brief history of PRSA’s ethical standards, their functions and effects on public relation professionals and profession. Moreover, this paper seeks to determine ways through which PRSA has strengthened and weakened certain professionals and agencies. Reputation acquired through affiliation to PRSA is valuable to members; in fact, it is highly dependent upon their ethical conduct (PRSA, Member, 1). In addition, these members focus on setting examples among themselves and other professionals by achieving excellent standards of performance, professionalism and ethical behaviors. Nevertheless, there are situations when emphasis to enforce Public Relation Society of America’s ethical standards has been ignored. In this case, this has led to decision by PRSA board of Directors to expel or bar some parties in the soc iety from joining PRSA membership (PRSA, Member, 1). For instance, individuals who have been involved in sanctions from government agencies or convictions in courts due to issues concerning violating code of ethics become liable to expulsion from PRSA membership. Therefore, PRSA overview indicates that it focuses on prime obligation, which involves promotion of ethical practices among professions, organizations and professionals. History of Public Relations Society of America (PRSA) Public Relations Society of America commenced in 1950, whereby it was established through a desire to form student counterpart (Garcia, 3). After some time, this interest was diminished, though there were few professionals, who made efforts to rekindle PRSA. Besides, members of PRSA lost their interest on PRSA leading to a notion that discredited PRSA, through claims that it could not be taught. Nonetheless, the chairperson of PRSA’s Education Committee, who was called Howard Penn Hudson, decided to change people’s perception towards PRSA, in 1965 (Garcia, 3). In this case, he made effort to reestablishing initial affiliation with students through clubs, societies and fraternities. The process to rekindle PRSA began by invitation of six schools in 1965 by Ovid Davis, who was the president of PRSA (Garcia, 4). In fact, this invitation was aimed at gathering members together for that year’s National Conference in Denver. In 1967, the president of Division of the educators’ organization, Professor James Young decided to call Association for Education in Journalism (AEJ), thereby establishing his arguments that there was need for PRSA in processes of developing students with professional orientation (Garcia, 4). In fact, this effort was supported by groups of independent student, who did not have guidance to meet PRSA objectives. On the other hand, there where groups, which had a significant interest on the future of PRSA, and this led to establishment of Lo ng Range Planning Committee of PRSA in 1967 (Garcia, 4). Moreover, during the following year, there was an establishment of PRSA chapters in nine schools, which offered courses in public relations, and this has led to developments such as establishment of PRSA’s ethical standards in the present days. Functions of PRSA Ethical Standards One of the significant functions of PRSA’s ethical standards is to apply public relations in order to pivot ethics among its practitioners or members. In future of professionals, who

Network Opimisation Problems And Forecasting

Network Opimisation Problems And Forecasting The Makonsel Company, a fully integrated company that both produces and sells goods at its retail outlets. After production, the goods are stored in companys two warehouses until needed by the retail outlets. Trucks are used to transport the goods from the two plants to the warehouses, and then from the warehouses to the three retail outlets. Using units of full truckloads, the following table shows each plants monthly output, its shipping cost per truckload sent to each warehouse, and the maximum amount that it can ship per month to each warehouse. Unit Shipping Cost For each retail outlet (RO), the next table shows its monthly demand, its shipping cost per truckload from each warehouse, and the maximum amount that can be shipped per month from each warehouse. Unit Shipping Cost The Managements objective is to determine the shipping plan (number of truckloads shipped per month from each plant to each warehouse and from each warehouse to each retail outlet) that will minimise the total shipping cost. In order to achieve the objective, the following issues will be discussed : The distribution network of Makonsel Company, algebraic formulation for the network model, spreadsheet formulation for this problem by using the solver of excel and interpretation and recommendation of the result. The distribution network A network model for the Makonsel Company problem as a minimum-cost flow problem According to the data from the table above we put it into a distribution network. The supply nodes in this network are P1 (plant1) and P2 (plant2), the transshipment nodes are W1 (warehouse1) and W2 (warehouse2) and the demand nodes in this network are RO1, RO2 and RO3. And the shipping cost and the shipping capacity differ considerably among these shipping lanes. The cost per unit shipped and the maximum amount that it can ship per month (given in square brackets of the arc) through each lane is shown above corresponding arrow in the above Figure. Algebraic Formulation Solution: Decision variables Makonsel must determine how much to ship per month from each plant to each warehouse and from each warehouse to each retail outlet. Let Xij = Number of truckloads to ship from i to j (i = P1, P2; j = W1, W2). Let Xjk =Number of truckloads to ship from j to k (j =W1, W2 k=RO1, RO2, RO3). Then Makonsels problem may be formulated as Objective: Subject to: The first five constraints ensure that each retail outlet is meet their monthly demand, and the 2 Sources constraints are ensure that each plants monthly output and the last 10 ensure the maximum amount that can be shipped per month. Spreadsheet Formulation After we finished the algebraic formulation, we can transform them to spreadsheet, and using the solver of Excel to work out the distribution problem. The spreadsheet formulations are all showed in the graph below. A spreadsheet model for the Makonsel Company minimum-cost flow problem, where the changing cells (C4:C13) show the optimal solution obtained by the Solver and the target cell (E15) gives the resulting total cost of the flow through the network. Interpretation and Recommendation The optimal solution for the Makonsel Company problem, where the shipping amounts are shown in parentheses over the arrows By using excel we can calculate the minimum total shipping cost of Makonsel Company is  ¿Ã‚ ¡488.125. In order to make the minimum total monthly shipping cost of  ¿Ã‚ ¡488.125, the Makonsel Company should first transport 125 truckloads per month from plant 1to warehouse 1 and 75 units to warehouse 2. And ship 175 truckloads per month from plant 2 to warehouse 1, ship 125 truckloads per month to warehouse2. After that the retail outlet1, retail outlet 2 and retail outlet 3 should get 100 truckloads, 50 truckloads and 100 truckloads from warehouse 1 respectively. And should separately transport 50 truckloads, 150 truckloads and 50 truckloads from warehouse 2 to retail outlet1, retail outlet 2 and retail outlet 3. As we have known the shipping cost per truckload from each plant and each warehouse from the table. Thus the Minimum Cost= 425*125+560*75+510*125+600*175+470*100+505*50 +490*100+390*50+410*150+440*50 =488,125 Conclusion Determined the shipping plan which can minimise the total shipping cost is the management objective of Makonsel Company. By building the distribution network , formulating the constraints and calculating the result through using the solver of excel , Makonsel Company successfully solve the distribution network problem and construct the shipping plan with the minimum total shipping cost of  ¿Ã‚ ¡488.125. Forecasting Introduction The time-series below relates to the Sales of a company (00s) for the last five years. The objective is to use the information contained in the time-series data above to construct a forecast of the next four quarters sales. In order to achieve the objective, the following issues will be discussed: Analysis this time-series, Detrend a Time-Series and construct the Seasonal Indices by MINITAB, Forecasting the next four quarters sales and use measures to identify the forecast accuracy, Reservations about the appropriateness of the forecasting procedure used. Time-series Analysis Main characteristics of this time-series The first step in any forecasting exercise is to plot a graph of the time-series. We transfer the data from the table to Minitab and use the time series plot-simple of Minitab to make the graph, since the time-series was recorded in quarter, so we choose the quarter of calendar in time scale. The plot of this time-series looks like: Form the graph above We can roughly find out that there is a decreasing trend over time, a clear quarterly seasonal effect and it is a table time series, the pattern is regular with little random noise. With the purpose of confirming the characteristics of the time-series, we use the cantered moving averages (CMA). Since the CMA is the average and smoothed data of the actual figures, which is much easier for us to determine the characteristics of the time-series, we use this plot instead. As the time-series was recorded in quarters and with quarterly seasonal effect so the length of moving average is 4, and chose the moving averages, plot the graph smoothed vs. actual. Negative Trend Structure, an decreasing trend over time It is a negative trend structure. Look at the smoothed line of this time-series, as at the beginning of the time-series the sales of this company is about 485 ,however , it keeps decreasing and from about 485 down to around 478 to roughly 471 and finally it decrease to around 405. A clear seasonal structure , additive seasonal structure It can be seen from the graph above that there is a clear quarterly seasonal structure, for each quarter 1 the actual observed value is about 13 units below the trend value. For quarters 2, 3 4 estimating from the graph the actual observed values are 30 above, 22 above and 23 below the estimated trend values. Seasonal Structures: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13 30 22 -23 These are estimates of the seasonal indices; and also in this case, for a given variable the quarter 1 is 13 units below trend, quarter 2, 3 are 30 units and 22 units above trend, quarter 4 is 23 units below trend. And it can be seen from the graph above, seasonal deviation is constant about the trend so this seasonal structure is additive. A table time series, the pattern is regular with little random noise The graph of Moving average plot for sales above shows us that the pattern is regular with little random noise, it decreasing stability of the seasonal pattern, and also from the smoothed line we can find that the series reduce stability, from about 485 down to around 478 to roughly 471, ect. No more than 10units lower. Model the time-series QUADRATIC TREND MODELS There are two trend models ,one is linear trend model (Trend = a + b*t ) and the other is Quadratic trend model (Trend = a + b*t + ct2 ), and as we have been calculated the Cantered Moving Average (CMA)above, which is the average and smoothed line of the actual sales, so by using the CMA, we can use value of these two models to compare with the value of CMA, and then choose the model which the value is much closer to the CMA as our forecasting model. There are three commonly used measures of forecast accuracy: Mean Square Deviation (MSD), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). And the smaller the data is, the more accurate of the forecast. And it can be seen from the graph above that the Quadratic Trend Model, MAPE=0.43297, MAD=1.91172, MSD = 5.44313, and to the Linear Trend Model, MAPE=0.51281, MAD=2.21232, MSD = 7.74838. The data of the Quadratic Trend Model are all smaller than the Linear Trend Model, which means that the value of quadratic trend model is much closer than value of the CMA; the quadratic trend model is much more accurate than the linear trend model, so choose the quadratic trend model to forecast. Detrend a Time-Series and construct SI of MINITAB Detrend a Time-Series Detrend a Time-Series, which means Sales-Trend (DIV), the gap between the actual sales and the forecast sales. After we have decided to take the quadratic model to forecast, we can record the data as the trend data, and the plot the graph above to compare with the sales and trend. And use the actual sales data minus the forecast one we can Detrend a Time-Series. As the graph shows us above the DIV1=472-500.367=-28.3673, DIV2=516-493.333=22.6674, DIV3=507-486.459=20.5414, DIV4=462-479.745=-17.7454, etc. By using the Minitab, we can use the calculator to figure the result. Construct the Seasonal Indices by MINITAB As Seasonal Indices is the quarter average of DIV, after we have calculated the DIV, we can use MINITAB to construct the seasonal indices. And in the MINITAB, we use the decomposition to figure out the SI. As we have described before that the sales trend of this company is additive and seasonal and the data were recorded in quarter, so the seasonal indices is four quarters as a unit, the seasonal length is 4 and the model type is additive. And Seasonal Indices is the average of each quarter of DIV, so the seasonal indices can be calculated as below: Quarter1=SI1= (DIV1+DIV5+DIV9+DIV13+DIV17)/5= -24.0937 Quarter2=SI2= (DIV2+DIV6+DIV10+DIV14+DIV18)/5=20.4062 Quarter3=SI3= (DIV3+DIV7+DIV11+DIV15+DIV19)/5=17.2812 Quarter4=SI4= (DIV4+DIV8+DIV12+DIV16+DIV20)/5=-13.5937 Since seasonal indices is the average of each quarter of DIV so SI is quarterly cycle, the value of SI5 will equal to the value of SI1, SI6=SI2, etc. And also it can be seen from graph above that the SI is quarterly cycle. Forecasting and measures of forecast accuracy Future Forecast As the Future Forecast equal Future Trend plus Future Seasonal Indices, so first we should use the CMA to calculate the future trend of the next four quarters. Since the CMA is the average and the smoothed data of the actual data, using the data of CMA can let forecast more accuracy. And the time-series is seasonal structure of quarter, so the number of forecast is 4. And we use trend analysis to calculate the future trend. After we figure out the future trend, copy the first four Seasonal Indices (SI is quarterly cycle) which we have calculated before (-24.0937, 20.4062, 17.2812, -13.5937), as Future Seasonal Indices. And then use the FTrend and FSI to figure out the Future Forecast value (FFC=FTrend+FSI). After figure out the FFC, copy them after the FC to plot a forecast. The plot of time series of sales and forecast looks like: So the next four quarters; Q1, Q2, Q3 Q4 of 2009 are: Q1=366.116, Q2=406.796, Q3=400.011, Q4=365.637 Measures of forecast accuracy After we calculate the forecasts for the next four quarters, we need to know whether the forecast is accurate or not, so we use the three commonly used measures of forecast accuracy: MSD, MPE and MAD to check the forecasts. i. Mean Square Deviation: MSD = S (Xt Ft)2/n ii. Mean Absolute Deviation: MAD = S |Xt Ft| /n iii. Mean Percentage Error: MPE = S |(Xt Ft)/Xt| /n Since all of measures above need the value of Xt Ft (error), so we should calculate the error first. Error = Sales-FC, in the Minitab we use calculator to figure it out. After calculated the error, we can figure out the value of accuracy. MSD = S (Xt Ft)2/n MAD = S |Xt Ft| /n MPE = S |(Xt Ft)/Xt| /n And for this forecast the MSD=29.3526, MAD=4.69560, MPE=1.08963. As we all know for each forecast indicator, the lower value, the higher prediction accuracy. And usually we use the MPE to confirm the accuracy. Lets look at the MPE, the value of MPE is equal to 1.08963%, though the value of MPE is slightly higher than 1%, it close to 1%, the forecast is still accuracy. Reservation In this forecasting procedure we faced two choices, one is determined the seasonal structure of the time-series, determining whether the seasonal structure is additive or multiplicative. And the other one is to confirm the trend model, choosing the linear model or the quadratic model. The choice we make will affect the accuracy of forecasting. Additive or Multiplicative In this forecasting, we analysis the time-series as additive seasonal structure by using method below ¼Ã… ¡ Seasonal Structures: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13 30 22 -23 In this case ¼Ã…’for a given variable the quarter 1 is 13 units below trend, quarter 2 is 30 units above trend, etc. This is an Additive Seasonal Index. Alternatively we could have expressed the index as follows: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -13% 30% 22% -23% Here the quarter 1 data is 13% below the trend value, or more conventionally 87% of trend, similarly for the other quarters. It is conventional to express this Seasonal Index as: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 87% 130% 122% 77% This is called a Multiplicative Seasonal Index and if the seasonal deviation is proportional to the trend then the seasonal structure is multiplicative. In this case we preferred the additive seasonal structure as the time-series constant about the trend, but in fact it could proportional to the trend and become the multiplicative seasonal structure in the future, so we should make appropriate adjustments base on the future data. Linear or Quadratic model In this case, we modeled the time-series as quadratic model due to the data the company provided closer to the quadratic model now, however, with the future data the model may be transformed into the linear model. Conclusion The objective of the company is to use time-series data to construct a forecast of the next four quarters sales. So as to do the forecast first we analysed the time-series to determine main characteristics of this time-series and modeled it, then found out the difference between the sales and trend to construct the seasonal indices, after that did the forecasting and to identify whether the forecast accurate or not by using the MAD, MSD and MPE. And the next four quarters sales of this company are Q1=366.116, Q2=406.796, Q3=400.011, Q4=365.637. However, during the forecasting procedure we should also consider about the choice we have made whether to choose additive or multiplicative, the linear model or the quadratic model will affect the accuracy of forecasting.

Julia Stasch – Case Study

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOUR Case study-2 Julia Stasch (A) Submitted To: Submitted By: Section – B Group-7 Name| Roll No. | | | Archana Sharma| 2012074| Ashish Saxena| 2012080| Ayush N. Aggarwal| 2012085| Bhavneet Singh Uppal| 2012092| Chetan Chawhan| 2012100| Deepak Chandak| 2012104| Gaurav Kapshe| 2012119| Outline of the case A. Introduction Richard A Stein, an entrepreneur, established a company named Stein & company in 1971.In short span of time, company evolved with many parallel businesses like real estate services, development and construction consulting, tenant and landlord representation, brokerage, leasing, marketing, asset management and program management and got a privilege to be in fortune 500. In their construction business, they have worked with big giants like AMT, USG Corporation, U. S. General and the University of Chicago. By 1988, company was responsible for more than $1 billion worth of properties. Julia Stasch, B. A. from Loyola University and an M. A. from University of Illinois, joined the company in 1976 as a secretary.Prior to this job she used to teach history in school and was enjoying a schedule that permits her for long vacations. Though, she was unhappy with her salary. Initially the firm, in 1976, employed only four people, and Julia Stasch was one of them. Due to this she had great responsibilities, which consists of reviewing construction loan applications, inspection of work in progress and to lead daily operations. As company grew, Stasch’s position also grew. She started with Secretary, then Project coordinator, then Executive Vise president to Chief administrative officer.Stasch’s vision was to empower women in construction industry and to support minority and women-owned businesses. She got this opportunity in 1984, when local government asked the firm to include affirmative action in a small project. Affirmative action is an action or policies to benefit underrepresented group in areas of employment, edu cation and business. After this project, the firm bid for AT&T, the telecommunication giant, by adding affirmative action component. And combination of business and social cause helped them to win the contract. Stasch with Joe Williams, affirmative action consultant, draw a strategy and made a task force.The work of task force was to define goals and strategy to achieve it. Task force worked out a handbook with details and rules for the contractors and sub contractors, if they want to work with them. They also helped women and minority owned firms with orientation sessions and with giving requisite certificates, bonding and insurance. This leads to success of affirmative action program and brought many awards from both task force and outsiders. Affirmative action program did impact on construction industry but didn’t change male dominated construction jobs of Chicago. A verdict by Bill Townsend and Lauren Sugerman proves the same.Questioning about their upper body strength, t he â€Å"Catch 22† Situation, rude comments, sexual harassment are some of the issues which makes difficult for women to survive in construction jobs. The happenings with Veronica Rose shows dirty picture of construction industry. B. Objective As construction industry is male dominated and women survival is difficult in the same. To find various ways or strategies by which women empowerment can be done in construction industry and to club this social cause with business for win-win situation. C. Analysis Background of the problem:In this case, even after affirmative action program, minority and women-owned suppliers cannot change the male dominating thinking of construction industry. All the high ranked and high paying jobs were held by men. Sex discrimination and anti-women attitudes are still prevalent on worksites, despite the fact that sex discrimination is illegal. Female construction workers suffer from gender and sexual harassment, a factor associated with low job sati sfaction as well as psychological inadequate information and the lack of education and training, about workplace safety and health greatly concern women workers.The culture and attitudes of construction workers, supervisors, and companies about health and safety often condone risk taking and unsafe work practices, passing â€Å"bad† habits from one generation of workers to the next. In the background we still have a cultural stereotype in our societies which associates masculinity with strength and power and femininity with tactfulness and sensitivity. And that is why anti-women attitude have dominance over construction industry. These expectations in turn create distinct social environments in which men and women learn to communicate and deal with conflict in quite different ways.The assumptions that root the frequent argument are that woman is physically not strong to endure this strenuous task. When entering the gender segregated occupations, these women need to prove thei r competence despite their qualifications and experiences. Among the common barriers are social acceptances of employment, sexually-inappropriate occupation, sexual discrimination, sexual harassment, physical incapability, unqualified for blue-collar jobs and labour conditions such as extreme weather, unsociable work-hours and exposure to hazards. Various incidents in this case are hypothesis to this context: . Stasch being aware of AT&T’s attempts to support minority-owned vendors and suppliers, she suggested that Stein & Company should distinguish its bid by including a strong affirmative action component which bought success and Stein & Company got the project to build AT&T’s headquarter building. 2. Affirmative action achieved new heights when more than 100 minority and women-owned contractors and sub-contractors worked on AT&T’s project, and 23% i. e. about $37 million of the aggregate construction dollars went to these firms. . Male workers often made rude comments, played hurtful pranks, committed sexual harassments and sometimes deliberately put women in physical danger. A CWIT study stated that- 88% women workers were subject to picture of naked or partially dressed, 83% unwelcome sexual remarks, 80% faced problem of no toilets or dirty toilets, 60% being given heaviest or dirtiest assignments, 57% being touched or asked for sex. 4. A male co-worker paused by the ladder on which Veronica Rose was working, looked her over and urinated on the bottom rung.Rose had already been threatened with being pushed off from high floor of Manhattan Construction site. She had to face a punch which fractured her jaw by the foreman, whose sexual advances she had snubbed. Once, Rose was pushed into a supply closet by a co-worker and nearly raped. Various alternatives to find the solution: Occupational Segregation: Occupational segregation is one of the barriers which prevents women and men from fulfilling their potential in the labour market, and c onsequently contributes to the pay gap. According to one perspective, occupational egregation is grounded in biology; men’s and women’s jobs to a significant degree reflect innate skills, abilities, and preferences that result in women working as elementary school teachers and men as auto mechanics. According to this perspective, women tend to self-select into jobs that allow them to balance work and family responsibilities, putting them out of running jobs that require large commitments of time and energy. Employers should use occupational segregation to determine the pay scale of workers irrespective of gender which can bring a gender justice in society. Reduced gender gaps in primary school education:Education may be an important precondition to women empowerment, but it does not guarantee that empowerment. For this to occur, women must also enjoy equal rights with men, equal economic opportunities, use of productive assets, freedom from drudgery, equal representati on in decision-making bodies, and freedom from the threat of violence and coercion. Most important, education must serve as the vehicle for transforming attitudes, beliefs and entrenched social norms that sustain discrimination and inequality. Data around the world shows that increased education is associated with the empowerment of women.Educated women are more effective at improving their own well being and that of their family. These empowering effects of women education are manifested in a variety of ways, including increased income earning potential, decision making autonomy, control over their own fertility and participation in public life. Gender Equality and Empowerment of women: A critical aspect of promoting gender equality is the empowerment of women, with a focus on identifying and redressing power imbalances and giving women more autonomy will help them to manage their own lives.It will bring gender justice, greater opportunity and better quality of life so that equalit y is achieved at high level of well beings. Other Practically Applicable Solutions: – * Contractors should be made clear that if any case of women harassment is reported against them, then they will be barred from applying in any of the further projects. * Women workers should be motivated and encouraged to raise voice against any such incidence happened with them and come forward and report about it to the management. Should encourage labour unions and employers to include sexual harassment prevention training in safety and health programs. * Review all communication materials to ensure that they are gender neutral and include women. Visual materials (videos, posters, pictures, etc. ) should include examples of female construction workers to promote an integrated construction workplace. * To address the problem of workplace isolation of female construction workers should assign female workers in pairs. Best Proposed Solution:Government should enforce the prominent safety for women workers. Company should amend the rules for contractors that in case of women harassments, contractor’s company will be barred for further biddings. To establish gender neutral work culture all the above mention solutions has to implement on a long term basis. D. Conclusion In this case we had seen that has the construction labour force becomes more diversified, the construction industry as a whole cannot afford to overlook the genuine problem regarding the safety concerns of female construction workers.These issues merit attention to and action by, all those who share responsibility in the arena of construction safety and health. With the above proposed solution we can empower women as social and economic participants – A first step in the journey towards socio-economic development. And we will be able to provide them a safe and healthy environment in construction companies. The employment of progressive values and externally-motivated philosophies practices ca n enhance overall corporate health in two important areas. First t will enhance the productivity of corporation. Second it will positively affect the outside stakeholder. Sticking to the values and causes for social benefit will help the organisation to grow. E. Managerial learning derived from the case By analysing this case we learned that the creative change strategies implemented by one executive can help in upbringing of minority and women in society and organisation. And how one individual can create social changes? Business can encourage the workforce diversity in organisation.Stasch was having wide latitude of responsibilities in company. But Stasch was making huge efforts to increase the use of minority and women suppliers on Stein’s projects. Being a manager we can create plans and strategies within organisation which can create a positive change in society. For the social economical development of society, gender justice is necessary. References: – 1. An Int roduction to the Sociology of Work and Occupations By- Rudy R. Volti 2. The Future of gender Cambridge University Press- Jude Browne